First Annual Migration Management Cycle

The European Commission (EC) has launched the first Annual Migration Management Cycle under the Pact on Migration and Asylum. The launch, which took place on 11 November, followed several weeks of delay after the original deadline of 15 October was missed. It centred on the publication of the European Annual Asylum and Migration Report together with an annex on the state of play of Pact implementation, and an Implementing Decision pursuant to Article 11 of the Asylum and Migration Management Regulation (AMMR) with an annex setting out the EU member states (MS) that are considered to be under ‘migratory pressure’.

The European Annual Asylum and Migration Report identifies Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Spain as EU MS that are currently under migratory pressure due to disproportionate arrivals (Cyprus and Greece) or search and rescue operations at sea (Italy and Spain). While it is positive that most Mediterranean countries have been recognised as being under pressure, the evaluation of whether their asylum and reception systems suffer from systemic shortcomings has been postponed until 2026 when the full system will be operational. According to the report, the EC will carry out this assessment by 12 July 2026 and again by 15 October 2026, and will pay particular attention to inter-MS co-operation, including transfers and logistical coordination.

The issue of transfers has been a point of division among MS, with some northern countries reportedly pushing to exclude Italy and Greece from receiving solidarity on the grounds that they have allegedly failed to respect their obligations under the existing Dublin Regulation. This debate underscores the continuing tensions between MS on responsibility sharing.

In addition to the four MS under migratory pressure, the report identifies six others (Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia and Poland) that are facing a ‘significant migratory situation’. This means that they may be granted a full or partial deduction from their solidarity contributions for the upcoming year, effectively reducing their obligation to provide support under the ‘Solidarity Pool’.

The EC proposal for the establishment of the Solidarity Pool (i.e. the central mechanism through which MS under pressure can receive support) will not be made public, thus leaving a lack of clarity about its size, composition and the extent of so-called “people solidarity” (relocations). Although, MS will be free to contribute via relocations, financial support or alternative measures, it is expected that the pool may be quite limited in practice, particularly regarding relocations. The Solidarity Pool will be established through a Council implementing act, following the pledges made by MS at the High-level EU Solidarity Forum, which must be convened within 15 days of the EC proposal.

While the introduction of a mandatory solidarity mechanism under the Pact should be seen as a positive step, ECRE has previously noted that the effectiveness of solidarity is likely to be constrained by the structural design of responsibility allocation. The AMMR, similarly to the existing Dublin system, continues to place disproportionate responsibilities on MS at the EU’s external borders, and will most likely reproduce the various shortcomings that have already been identified. These obligations will also be increased through the implementation of other Pact instruments, notably the Screening Regulation and the Asylum Procedures Regulation. There is also a risk that solidarity contributions – particularly financial or capacity support – may not provide enough of an incentive for full compliance with responsibility rules or for meaningful reforms of national systems.

Overall, the first Annual Migration Management Cycle represents both a milestone and a stress test for the Pact. Its success depends not only on the recognition of migratory pressures but also on whether solidarity contributions are sufficient to support fair responsibility sharing and to improve reception and asylum systems.

Relevant ECRE publications